In Nov 2012 Barak Obama won a second term as president
despite the state of the economy, which had been in a funk ever since his first
term. Not long after the new year I retired, a bit early due to unsuccessful
efforts on my part in finding full time work, and because a feeling that it may
be beneficial to start collecting social security before the government
realizes it has over promised and starts cutting back on benefits. Seventeen
trillion dollars in debt and counting does not seem to scare the politicians in
Washington, which only scares me more.
My career was in
manufacturing. It was work I enjoyed, working with people to complete a common
goal. I use to tell the employees that someone who is really good at
self-motivation and accomplishing things on his own is called an artist, but
most of us need the support and structure of a group to be productive. I had a
short paragraph on my office wall for years. It was from a book by E.F.
Schumacher’s, “Good Work”:
“
Traditional wisdom teaches that the function of work is at heart threefold:(1)
to give a person a chance to utilize and develop his faculties; (2) to enable
him to overcome his inborn egocentricity by joining other people in a common
task; and (3) to bring forth the goods and services needed by all of us for a
decent existence.”
My last place of
employment was in a company that supplied the auto industry. The auto companies
have a tight hold on the processes and practices of their suppliers, so a lot
of the skill and creativity has been replaced by an increasingly detailed
cookbook.
Presently unemployed,
I am free to do what? Question authority? I have known my whole life that the
world is not quite what it pretends to be. We have built a society that lives
on the edge, a society that needs massive amounts of fossil fuels to sustain
itself, and there have been cracks showing up for a while. Supplies coming out of the Middle East though
plentiful and, by some accounting practices, cheap, still require vast
investments both on land and sea to remain secure. The resources we need to
keep this going are getting harder to find, and by resources I referring to
young people, money, and the political will to kill and be killed.
In many ways the
systems we rely on are starting to fail.
The food we eat is less nutritious than the food of just a couple of
generations ago. All the vegetables we
see in the market have been developed to contain more sugar and in the process
have lost a lot of the nutrients that the original varieties contained.
Vegetables are bred to pack well or tolerate shipping better, but are not bred
to be healthier; the effect is food that looks good but provides less nutrition.
As populations grow they are putting increased pressure on all the natural
systems we need for survival. The oceans are less productive as fisheries are
over fished and the chemistry of the ocean is becoming more acidic as carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere is absorbed. The trends are going the wrong way and
the trends tell the story of where we are headed. There is less farmland each
year not more, and less topsoil. The bugs are getting more resilient; requiring
more poisons be put into the soil to maintain our agriculture. We drive more
miles, spread out in suburban sprawls further and further from the city centers,
and use more oil. Unless and until all these trends reverse and head the other
way we are headed for a general breakdown. How the collapse starts and how it
spreads is a very interesting area for speculation. But one insight I’ve had is
that it will not happen everywhere at once. Some societies and some locations
are more vulnerable than others. Of course, at the same time, we are becoming
more interdependent as the industrial model of life spreads over the
globe. None of this is new and many of
us have lived with a sense of dread from expectations that we are seeing the
end of a way of life. How do we justify passing this on to our children and
grandchildren? The arguments have been either “It can’t possibly be this bad”,
or “someone will find a new energy source or way of growing food”, that will
allow us to continue traveling down this path of mechanical and electronic
evolution. All of these rationales for doing nothing are wrong.
I was born on
November 6th, 1950, midcentury - it has always made figuring my age
easy. It also centered me in a certain way. I went from a timeless childhood in
the fifties, my memories being of running on the grass at eight thinking life
could get no better, playing on a Little League team in town, pitching a no
hitter once, getting perfect attendance awards at the Sunday school each year,
to an explosive, liberating, painful, and confusing teenage years in the
sixties. The American society I was born into still held petty prejudices about
religion, race, and sexuality that would mostly fall away with the election of
John Kennedy the first Catholic to be a U.S. president. His death, followed by
the killings of Malcom X, Martin Luther King (whose death I heard about on the
radio and remembering thinking what have these bastards done) , and Robert Kennedy
made the decade of the sixties a painful time to come of age. I learned of John
Kennedy’s death upon leaving my grammar school as a group of us were walking
over to the dance lessons (fox trot, waltzes, and cha-cha-cha) that a lot of
the eight graders took in the Methodist church hall. Someone, I don’t remember
who, told us that Kennedy had been killed. My reaction was not one of fear or
disgust, my father was very much against him, but my mother was crying when I
got home that afternoon. However, as the decade went on and I went from a 13
year old to a 20 year old, the impacts of the endless assassinations helped to
form both mine and my generation’s distrust and disgust of authority. By the
middle of the sixties we had become angry with the comfortable society our
parents had tried to create in the suburbs. A society that had left out black
families, whose rights to the American dream just seemed so self-evident to us,
but not our parents.
In the early years of
the seventies the dollar still had a lot of value and jobs were plentiful. I
saved enough to travel to Morocco. In Marrakesh a young man came up and said, “You
Americans are all rich.” I said, ‘“No that’s not true. “ He asked, “Can you get
a job when you want one?” I said, “Yes.” “You are rich” he said. It was a lesson that
stayed with me. America had opportunities that were not universal. I remember
coming back to New York after 3 months of travel in Europe and Northern Africa
and thinking how much brighter, faster, and noisier, the “Wild West” it was
compared to where I had been.
While I was in
Europe, President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off the gold standard. We would
watch the exchange rate change every day as the value of our dollars declined.
The hippy/youth lifestyle that the 20 somethings were cultivating started to
unravel as the value of the dollar started a steady decline. The need for a steady
income became more and more apparent, and at the same time children began to
arrive as they are apt to do, who required stability not previously considered.
So off to work we went. But the research coming out of the universities was
revealing that our society was not sustainable. The book “Limits to Growth”
demonstrated why the American way of life would crash in the early decades of
the 21st century. We knew this, but tried our best to forget all we
had learned. We used cloth bags for our shopping; we recycled glass, and felt
good about the cleaner water and air the country had committed itself to after
the first Earth Day. However, all along the way the carbon released by burning
fossil fuels continued to build up in the atmosphere; by 2013 it reached 400
ppm.
Collapse time
is indeed coming closer. Some say half the country will be dead in 5 years.
Lately I’ve feared that the old people will feel compelled to hold die–ins,
where groups take the“Kool-Aid” together to take the pressure off the young who
will have to use all their energy and wits to find ways to sustain both
themselves and their children. New
England, my home, has water and woods so it will have some cushion it can call
upon. Small dams on its many rivers may keep some electricity available. But
will there be any social organization to make it happen? The rural areas may
have a better chance of reestablishing some steady state, but those communities
are less stable and more prone to depression and violence now. Eric Fromm a
social psychologist writing in “A revolution of Hope” believed some form of
monastic life is what will be needed to pull us thru a very dark time. Life
without our technologies will be difficult if not near impossible for us. Currently
in existence are examples of a new and necessary way of life. The Amish have
cultivated a rural lifestyle much less dependent on the high energy tools we
have become so reliant on. And a movement called permaculture has developed
farming techniques that replace the impact of commercial monoculture by
integrating perennials into landscapes where the food becomes available without
the need of the yearly planting and plowing that disturbs the topsoil. Mulch
piles, wood lots, outhouses, canning vegetables and walking are not that far
back in our collective past, but are now very far from our collective
experiences. When the need for a new survival strategy becomes overwhelming it
will be because of systems that we currently rely on are failing. Economic news
is about creating monopolies, by bringing a new idea to the market, or
improving on some established product, or illegally by any number of ways to
stifle legitimate competition. Some people and corporations will make a lot of
money, but real shortages are not reported on the business pages of a
newspaper, because starvation and death is not a business story, it is a front
page story.
It may be that the
time needed to move away from an unsustainable material culture and to develop
a new model of sustainability may, in the end, not be available. The collapse
of our economic systems will come about through sharp rises in the cost of
necessary commodities such as oil or fertilizers or electricity. The day will
come when the banks don’t open or you can’t buy gas for your car or the food in
the refrigerator is spoiling because the electricity has been out for a few days.
However, that wakeup call will come too late for most of us to make the
necessary changes.
The American
people are tired and are no longer motivated by the myths that made us proud of
our past. Once we lost our sense that America was a special place, we became
vulnerable to a group of politicians who believe that their personal ambitions
are the more important than their constitutional responsibilities. That is why
the public outrage surrounding the current administration scandals are met with
such a total lack of remorse by those in power. They believe that the checks
and balances are outdated and the elites have the power to run things
unconstrained by the conventions of an earlier time. In the past, I think such
arrogance would have been countered by the leaders of our society reminding the
people of the principles both written and unwritten that represent our
traditions. The political class has failed the country since the sixties when
the unsustainability of our society started to be understood.
The assassinations of a Martin Luther King changed the civil
rights movement from one demanding inclusion of the black community into the
American mainstream to one that began to look for a separate identity. The current
anger in the black community in some sense stems from the fact that the black
society has developed a counter culture that the white society does not
understand. When blacks embrace gangster lifestyles then blame white society
for being fearful, are they not getting the response they are looking for? The same can be said for biker gangs and any other
lifestyle that at its roots is a reaction against the white middle class way of
life. This fracturing of our society means that we can get no consensus on how
to deal with any of the challenges facing us. Do we build more pipelines to
move oil and gas around the country or do we develop a different way to use
space that reduces our needs for carbon fuels? After the political killings and
a costly foolish war in Vietnam we had the Reagan years where all the efforts
to adapt to the new insights into the interrelationships that had become the
environmental movement, were dropped by an older president who was focused on
the past and not the future. “We have no problems. Nothing needs to be done”.
He removed from the White House roof the solar hot water system that President
Carter had installed to make his point. So go to work and make money. These
became wasted years, as no programs were put into place to prepare the country
for the coming shortages predicted by researchers using more complex computer
modeling to predict an alarming future with greater precision and detail.
After Reagan, the cold warrior, President Bush
used American troops to reinstall a king to the throne in Kuwait. Not only did
we fight a war that was not ours to fight but we did it for pay; the first and
only time I’m aware of that U.S. soldiers were used as mercenaries. The Saudis
were too weak to counter Saddam Hussein, but they had oil and the U.S. felt it
was in our interest to keep the oil flowing. Reagan had spent his time in
office and our money on weapons so when war broke out we were ready to fight.
If the time and money had been used to decouple the U.S. from overseas oil, we
would have had more options than we do now. But when the first President Bush
used American troops to put a Kuwaiti King back on his throne, he broke with
the revolutionary ideals that helped define our sense of ourselves. The war
brought Americans to the Saudi Kingdom where women are still not allowed to
drive. But U.S. female soldiers were allowed to drive jeeps in the kingdom
which was seen by some religious hardliners as a terrible affront to Islam. In
no small way that affront led to the attacks on 9/11 a decade later.
After the first Bush,
the Clintons grabbed the spot light. We thought they would bring us all
together but instead Bill and Hillary proved to be cynics who had looked behind
the curtain and no longer believed in anything higher than personal gain and
power. That administration’s credibility ended with sexual scandals involving a
president abusing his power to seduce a young female intern. When Al Gore, who
had been the Vice President under Clinton for 8 years, ran for the presidency
in 2000 we again had someone looking to the future and seeing a need to adjust
to the steadily increasing carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. Sadly, Gore had
accomplished nothing to move the country forward while he was Clinton’s
vice-president, and this destroyed his credibility as a leader.
And so another Bush took
office, and then came 9/11. The failures to deal with energy policies in the
past left us in a difficult situation where we needed to respond to an attack
but really had no plan of how to do so. Going to war in the Middle East, became
an investment with no return. Treasure spent and lives lost, but we as a people
are no closer to a sustainable future than we were when it started. Now don’t
get me wrong, we needed to defend ourselves after 9/11 but a more targeted
approach would have been quicker and a whole lot cheaper. We spent years
looking for Osama Bin Laden when the Saudi’s secret police could have found him
in an afternoon if we had only asked them in an appropriate way. What that
could have been, would have depended on how much pressure the Saudis would have
had to feel before giving Bin Laden up. His family members are still powerful
members of the ruling monarchy.
In Iraq the second Bush had a vision of democracy in the
heart of the Middle East. This might have been a noble goal, but it was merely
one of many alleged reasons for his preemptive war. President Obama pulled out of Iraq after years
of war and left Iraq to slip back into a civil war that Bush’s surge had tamped
down. Obama wants to disengage from the Middle East which at this point may
well be all we can or should do. But again with no plan for how the citizens of
America secure the promises of peace and prosperity in this changing economic
environment.
We will still need
oil but burning that oil will continue to change the climate and threaten the
food supply. So without any plans from
the federal government what can and should the people do for themselves? As the
price of basic needs (food, water, gasoline, health care, heat) gets more
expensive other more discretionary expenses will
diminish; fewer dinners out, less travel, those sorts of things. A weaker less
dynamic economy does not mean an end of a comfortable lifestyle, it could mean
a better, albeit slower way of life. Relationships with family, friends, and
neighbors would take on greater emphasis as paid services are replaced with
cooperative help. We could see and are beginning to see the country look again
to small farming as a meaningful endeavor. I would call this a return to
community and it is happening all over the country, but there will be an even
greater need to turn to family and friends as the current fossil fuel economy
and infrastructure are no longer feasible.
Our current
efforts at Green Energy have a high tech gee whiz aspect that does not offer
the best return on investment. Buckminster Fuller coined the phrase “doing more
with less” to explain and make conscious what had been happening as mechanical
culture over the centuries became more efficient. He believed that we must
become aware of this trend and stimulate the rate of progress. His book “Utopia
or Oblivion” was a challenge to face up to the world’s needs by ending world
poverty with a “design science revolution”. However, “doing more with less” is
not as easy as it sounds unless you are “doing away with”. Most of what is sold
to us as solutions, like electric cars that require more energy and heavy
metals to build, and run on electricity generated by burning coal, are just
shifting and hiding the problem. Another example of a solution that was not
thought through was the use of corn to make ethanol. With current farming
practices requiring more energy invested to grow and harvest corn than it
yields, there is no net energy increase. Society would be better off not
growing the corn in the first place and saving that energy. We need to get much
better at analyzing and understanding our energy usage. Simple third world
solutions may be better for what is shaping up to be hard times as the current
society shifts into a lower gear.
One infrastructure
investment that might prove to be very important in the future would be a
redesign of the railroads. One of the lessons I’ve learned during years working
in manufacturing is that most problems can be traced to the initial
engineering. That is certainly true with our railroad system. The wheel base is
to narrow, and that has a lot of further implications for the design. A wider
wheel base, something not possible when President Lincoln set the gauge for the
U.S. rails over a century ago, would allow for even greater speeds, safety and
energy efficiency. Greater speed and safety because a wider wheelbase would
make trains much more stable on curves. Because of the narrow base, rail cars
are designed to be heavy to keep then on the tracks. With a wider base, the
cars themselves could be lighter improving the energy efficiency of the overall
system. It would take decades to rebuild the rails, but a reengineered
reinvigorated rail system may be the only affordable way to transport long
distances in the near future as the cost of fuel continues to rise.
Today the federal
government is in gridlock as the parties who believe in debt, battle the
parties who don’t. That there are still people who would want to spend
trillions of dollars to keep up the current society rather than begin the
necessary scaling back that the resource shortages will impose on us sooner or
later anyhow, is surprising. And yet the federal government has just instituted
a new health insurance program that will surely cost huge sums of dollars and
disrupt one sixth of the economy in unforeseen ways. The intent may be noble
but without an overriding plan to deal with the changes that are sure to come
as resources become scarce, starting something this big seems a lot like
whistling in the dark, a denial of simple math, and math is not a strong suit
for most politicians, many of whom are in Washington solely for the purpose of
enriching themselves.
The role out of
the new federal health care plan has been a mess. The software is poorly
designed, but the problems go much deeper. Businesses run on profit, and
competition for profit drives innovation and efficiencies. Heath care insurance
has been regulated at the state level, the effect of which guaranties the
businesses a fixed return, thereby providing a disincentive to compete by
improving the service over a competitor. This is a fairly common understanding,
but leaving the market to itself does not offer politicians at the state or
federal level, an easy way to demonstrate their concern for the little guy, or
to insure adequate donations for their next election. Politicians who think
that they are working for social justice, and who believe that the money that
mysteriously finds its way into their reelection accounts as “God given” are
frauds. Who are they really working for? They are selling what they know people
want to believe, but I’m sure most also know in the long run they are changing
nothing as we rush closer to a day of reckoning, not because of social
injustices but because of resource depletion.
Since my birth in
1950, there have been a number of moments when the world turned and we found
ourselves wondering what happened. When President Nixon took the country off of
the gold standard he started a slow decline in the value of the U.S. dollar
that still continues to this day. When President Carter told the country that
we took pictures of the space shuttle and counted the tiles so we knew the
astronauts on Apollo 13 would be safe to reenter the atmosphere, people around
the world said “You took a picture and counted the tiles?” When the first space
shuttle landed on the airfield in California and hit the mark on the ground, people
said, “You dropped a plane from space and hit a mark on the ground, maybe those
ICBMs really will land where you aim them.” I think that American technological
feats helped to end the Cold War.
When John F. Kennedy was elected, the release of a daily
press briefing pushed the presidency into the forefront of our daily thoughts
in a way that President Eisenhower did not try to occupy. That insertion of the
media into our heads has continued to speed up over the intervening years. The
electronic media has evolved into 24/7
chatter, while at the same time the level of clarity in the political
discussions presented has devolved to a point where neither side argues with
truth, but instead uses what is called “spin”, which is a polite way of saying
they tell a half truth that leaves an inaccurate impression. If you have the
truth on your side of the argument, would you not use it to make your strongest
case? The use of spin indicates to me that the political class now believes “we
cannot handle the truth” so now they knowingly lie.
Now we are debating
(after the fact) what the government’s role in keeping us safe should be and,
to accomplish that goal, whether it is necessary to we give up all our rights to
privacy. Benjamin Franklin wrote “those
who would give up freedom for security deserve neither.” This seems to be the
chosen direction of policy makers.
The current debate
about illegal immigrants illustrates a prevailing acceptance of people as
capital. Many politicians want to give a second class status to undocumented
workers so they can be taxed without representation. Reagan virtually gave
engraved invitations to 1.5 million immigrants to press his neo-liberal agenda.
Then a grateful President and the one percent granted them amnesty. The erosion
of the middle class, median wages flat for four decades, and the death of
private and public sector unions is the continuing legacy of Reaganomics.
Politicians like most
Americans do not know our history nor do they any longer believe in the truths
I thought we all understood for what it meant to be a citizen. These truths are
important because they have essential to defining who we are. Those who would
give illegal immigrants a second class status offend me at a gut level, it is
un-American. We need to come to some resolution on immigration soon. As the
social structures around the world disintegrate, many more will see the U.S. as
the answer to their family’s needs. But if we are collapsing as a nation from
resource depletion, oil shortages, and fear, how should we respond to the
desperation of others?
To throw open the borders and end the concept of citizenship
which we are now told is the only compassionate response does not seem to me to
be true to our heritage or to really help the world in the long run, as the
“last best chance” fails along with everyone else due to overpopulation,
pollution, and disease. The world needs a drastic decline in population. We are
now 7 billion and adding 82 million more people each year. It has long been estimated
that the carrying capacity of our planet is about 2.5 billion. The needed
decrease in population will only come about sanely if the world adopts a one
child policy like the Chinese felt compelled to do. The Pope needs to confess
to the world that the Church’s teachings are wrong on birth control and pray
for forgiveness.
Where does this leave us? I think we need to pull our
friends and families closer. Plant more gardens, share the food, plant more
trees, can the fruit. Find local suppliers for the basics in life, and local
may mean a radius not more than 20 miles. As Odysseus’s father Laertes says in
Homer’s Odyssey “in bad times tend to
the trees”. What will bring humanity through these times will be respect for the
earth, love for our fellow man, and a humility that understands answers are not
to be found in our heads as much as in our hearts. We must be willing to let
some of what we consider progress slip away and be content with a slower,
greener lifestyle that may bring us back a century or two. I think the horse
and buggies used in the Amish communities may well be what replaces the high
tech self-driving cars that Google will be selling in a year or two. We will
need space to farm, and time for this next era to develop. None of this is a
given and it may end very badly for us. It is a challenge worthy of heroes. How
do we in America become natives to this land, “Turtle Island”? How do we
educate our children and grandchildren for this lower energy future? How do we keep joy in our hearts and not
succumb to sadness and depression as the world we were born into disappears? I
will end with a prayer “Give us this day our daily faith, but deliver us dear
Lord from belief”.
John Martin 6/11/14
1 comment:
Thought provoking entry.
Post a Comment